It’s called scarcity, and we can’t wait to see what you do with it.
Let’s start with the important bit. I think that over the last year, with acceleration toward the end of the year, I have heard of over 100,000 software engineers losing their jobs in some way. This is a tragedy. Each one of those people is a person, whose livelihood is at the whim of some capricious capitalist or board of same. Some had families, some were working their dream jobs, others had quiet quit and were just paying the bills. Each one of them was let down by a system that values the line going up more than it values their families, their dreams, and their bills.
While I am sad for those people, I am excited for the changes in software engineering that will come in the next decade. Why? Because everything I like about computers came from a place of scarcity in computering, and everything I dislike about computers came from a place of abundance in computering.
The old, waterfall-but-not-quite, measure-twice-and-cut-once approach to project management came from a place of abundance. It’s cheaper, so the idea goes, to have a department of developers sitting around waiting for a functional specification to be completed and signed off by senior management than for them to be writing working software: what if they get it wrong?
The team at Xerox PARC – 50 folks who were just told to get on with it – designed a way of thinking about computers that meant a single child (or, even better, a small group of children) could think about a problem and solve it in a computer themselves. Some of those 50 people also designed the computer they’d do it on, alongside a network and some peripherals.
This begat eXtreme Programming, which burst onto the scene in a time of scarcity (the original .com crash). People had been doing it for a while, but when everyone else ran out of money they started to listen: a small team of maybe 10 folks, left to get on with it, were running rings around departments of 200 people.
Speaking of the .com crash, this is the time when everyone realised how expensive those Oracle and Solaris licenses were. Especially if you compared them with the zero charged for GNU, Linux, and MySQL. The LAMP stack – the beginning of mainstream adoption for GNU and free software in general – is a software scarcity feature.
One of the early (earlier than the .com crash) wins for GNU and the Free Software Foundation was getting NeXT to open up their Objective-C compiler. NeXT was a small team taking off-the-shelf and free components, building a system that rivalled anything Microsoft, AT&T, HP, IBM, Sun, or Digital were doing – and that outlived almost all of them. Remember that the NeXT CEO wouldn’t become a billionaire until his other company released Toy Story, and that NeXT not only did the above, but also defined the first wave of dynamic websites and e-commerce: the best web technology was scarcity web technology.
What’s happened since those stories were enacted is that computerists have collectively forgotten how scarcity breeds innovation. You don’t need to know how 10 folks round a whiteboard can outsmart a 200 engineer department if your department hired 200 engineers _this month_: just put half of them on solving your problems, and half of them on the problems caused by the first half.
Thus we get SAFe and Scrumbut: frameworks for paying lip service to agile development while making sure that each group of 10 folks doesn’t do anything that wasn’t signed off across the other 350 groups of 10 folks.
Thus we get software engineering practices designed to make it easier to add code than to read it: what’s the point of reading the existing code if the one person who wrote it has already been replaced 175 times over, and has moved teams twice?
Thus we get not DevOps, but the DevOps department: why get your developers and ops folks to talk to each other if it’s cheaper to just hire another 200 folks to sit between them?
Thus we get the npm ecosystem: what’s the point of understanding your code if it’s cheaper just to randomly import somebody else’s and hire a team of 30 to deal with the fallout?
Thus we get corporate open source: what’s the point of software freedom when you can hire 100 people to push out code that doesn’t fulfil your needs but makes it easier to hire the next 500 people?
I am sad for the many people whose lives have been upended by the current downturn in the computering economy, but I am also sad for how little gets done within that economy. I look forward to the coming wave of innovation, and the ability to once again do more with less.
